Every pick priced, logged, graded — in public. Parlay builds and singles over
prediction-market prices, with the receipts to prove the record. Free all fall while we build it in the open.
Lifetime ROI across every real Kalshi ticket, losses included — verified against
account history, +$140.50 banked. The percent is what transfers to your stake size.
Every pick we publish gets graded the next morning with its closing-line value. The ledger is public, forever.
Win +$103Win +$91Loss −$15Win +$100
Pick your risk
Three builds per slate, assembled by rule from the eligible favorites. Never by vibes.
Low risk
3 legs · cash it
The short stack. Highest hit chance, modest multiplier, biggest suggested stake.
Balanced
5 legs · the play
The flagship build. Real payout, disciplined legs, sized to survive a losing streak.
High risk
7 legs · longshot
The lottery ticket, honestly labeled: smallest stake by rule, never chased.
The math is public
No black box. Every formula, constant, and backtest that builds the card is published on the board's Learn tab.
hit chance = Π leg probabilities · payout = Π (1 / leg ask)the whole parlay engine, two products
eligible leg: favorite, 55% ≤ adjusted prob ≤ 88%under 55% is a coin flip; over 88% is filler risk
aging favorite (6y+ gap): probability −3.5ppthe one edge that survived 6,916 fights of pre-registered backtesting
CLV = closing mid − entry midbeating the close is the proof a record isn't luck
